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Posted in Our Blog,Outbreaks & Recalls on October 9, 2025
Two large commercial poultry operations, including a turkey farm, have been recently hit by avian flu. Millions of birds have been lost to this virus. Recent outbreaks at a Canadian ostrich farm indicate the virus is not done mutating. In fact, this mutation was recently found in an American poultry farm worker.
Will this development impact availability of the preferred protein on the upcoming turkey-centric holiday? Could thanksgiving look a little different this year?
Since late August, and over the past month or so, 17 commercial farms have been hit with bird flu outbreaks. Most of which have been located in the upper midwestern part of the United States. Many of which have been identified as turkey farms.
In all, poultry losses in recent months have come to 3.75 million birds, according the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).
3.75 million birds lost to bird flu in recent months
A recent outbreak impacted 33,000 birds at a turkey farm in Le Sueur County, Minnesota. Another turkey farm in Sanpete County has also been hit, according to the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food (UDAF).
That is a significant loss. Especially with Thanksgiving right around the corner.
Utah’s state veterinarian, Kelly Pehrson, DMV explained that the Department is conducting additional surveillance and testing activities in areas around the impacted flock.
“Commercial turkey facilities in the norther U.S. and here in Utah have been most impacted by HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] this fall,” she said. “With migratory bird season just beginning, we may see a greater impact as the season progresses. It is imperative that poultry producers practice strong biosecurity.”
Laying farms have been hard hit as well. More than 3 million birds from a Wisconsin farm, along with six backyard flocks across multiple states have been included in this statistic.
Meanwhile, the “stamping out” approached used in the United States and across the world has been widely debated in Canada. Ostrich farmers in British Columbia have been holding out for a 9-month-long court battle that holds the fate of ostriches infected with the D1.3 genotype.
Farmers have tied up this action in court to save the lives of these birds.
However, the growing concern is allowing additional mutations of this virus. A genotype that has already infected an Ohio poultry worker.
Officials worry about the “persistent risk of reassortment and mutation,” which can pose a risk to wildlife, livestock, and humans as contact from migratory birds reaches the farm.
While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that the current health risk to humans is low, there have been at least 70 human cases so far. One person has died.
The majority of the cases have been contracted from dairy cattle herds (41) followed by poultry farms and culling operations (24). A handful of illnesses have resulted from “other animal exposure” and unknown sources.
In addition to these confirmed cases, another seven probable cases have been associated with this illness. Most of these were from poultry farms and culling operations. One probable case has been associated with dairy cattle herds and another from an unknown source. These cases likely meet the criteria for exposure risk and symptoms, but do not have laboratory evidence to confirm it.
Bird flu has been reported in people across the world since 1997. The virus that started out in birds has moved on to other animals, including dairy cows, cats, mice, and others.
It wasn’t until 2022 that bird flu cases in humans began popping up. Most of these cases involve “direct or close exposure” with infected animals (poultry and dairy cows) without using the recommended personal protective equipment. In some cases, backyard poultry or wild birds have been identified as the exposure source.
Most human cases have been mild. Though a few people have required hospitalization for their illness. One death was reported.
With turkey farm after turkey farm being hit by bird flu, it makes you wonder. Could we see shortages of this prime entrée at Thanksgiving this year?
Possibly.
According to Expana, a market data research firm, commercial meat birds have been the hardest hit turkey farm producers. In fact, 95% of the turkey farms impacted by bird flu have been commercial meat bird producers. Additionally, 4% have been commercial breeder hens, and 1% have been replacement commercial breeder hens.
This hasn’t just been happening in the United States. One of United State’s largest competitors, Chile who dominated both global and domestic stages, exited the market in 2024. Expana cited “disease-related concerns.”
Brazil filled in some of the gaps such a large producing country left. However, Brazil confirmed their first commercial case of bird flu on May 15th of this year (in chickens). But this has negatively impacted the international trust of this market. As such, buyers have begun turning elsewhere to other countries. Including the United States.
Increased international demand is likely not the only factor at play in turkey shortages this year.
The demand for turkey parts, ground turkey, and turkey for deli meat also pushes processors to allocate production away from the traditional whole birds we see at Thanksgiving to the higher profit margin of broken down carcasses.
With turkey being scarce, we are likely not seeing it on the table. At least, not at a price we are accustomed to. Could we see more ham or roast beef dinners instead?
Are you prepared for an alternative Thanksgiving meal?
If you’d like to know more about food safety topics in the news, like “Avian Flu Hits Another U.S. Turkey Farm! Could Thanksgiving Look a Little Different This Year?,” check out the Make Food Safe Blog. We regularly update trending topics, foodborne infections in the news, recalls, and more! Stay tuned for quality information to help keep your family safe, while The Lange Law Firm, PLLC strives to Make Food Safe!
By: Heather Van Tassell (contributing writer, non-lawyer)